Long-Term Modeling of Solar Energy: Analysis of Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) and PV Technologies

Solar technologies have unique characteristics that require detailed study to develop a suitable representation for modeling purposes. Solar technologies generally have low operating costs and carbon emissions, but high capital cost. Thus financing assumptions are particularly important for this type of capital-intensive technology. Intermittency is also a major characteristic of solar energy. In particular, when modeling solar energy, the interactions between solar generators and other generators in the electric system are critical in determining the long-term market potential for solar energy. This report includes three separate analyses developed to study these characteristics and guide the implementation of solar energy under JGCRI’s ObjECTS MiniCAM framework: (1) a review of the sensitivity of solar energy cost to different financial assumptions, (2) the development of a new approach to modeling CSP market potential considering intermittency, and (3) an analysis of the impact of intermittency of solar energy on system reliability. The current implementation of solar energy in the ObjECTS Framework is discussed at the end of the report along with preliminary model analysis results.